India’s Act East Policy, a key pillar of its foreign strategy aimed at deepening ties with ASEAN nations, is encountering significant challenges due to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. The prolonged instability, compounded by the recent passage of the Private Security Service Law by Myanmar’s military regime, has heightened security concerns for India. Reports indicate that Chinese private security firms, allegedly operating under the supervision of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), are expanding their presence in Myanmar. This growing Chinese influence risks turning Myanmar into a client state, thereby eroding India’s strategic leverage in the region.
India’s current approach to Myanmar is a precarious balancing act. It maintains diplomatic relations with the ruling military junta while tacitly engaging with ethnic rebel groups opposing the regime. However, this ambiguous stance has yielded limited results. The spillover effects of Myanmar’s turmoil are acutely felt in India’s northeastern states, particularly Manipur and Mizoram, where ethnic armed groups such as the Chin-Kuki militants have reportedly established strongholds. The ongoing unrest in Manipur, now stretching beyond 21 months, has exacerbated India’s vulnerabilities. Allegations of arms smuggling, cross-border militant movements, and deteriorating law and order have weakened India’s ability to implement an effective foreign policy in the region.
In contrast, China has adopted a more assertive and strategic approach, solidifying its influence in Myanmar by making the military regime increasingly reliant on Beijing’s economic and security assistance. With China expanding its control over Myanmar’s strategic infrastructure, natural resources, and security apparatus, India’s engagement with ASEAN nations faces a serious challenge. The enactment of the Private Security Service Law further accelerates this trend, allowing Chinese security firms to operate extensively in Myanmar, effectively serving as an extension of the PLA’s reach. This development enables Beijing to shape Myanmar’s internal security policies while simultaneously sidelining India’s interests.
For India to successfully implement its Act East Policy, it must first stabilize Manipur, which has emerged as a weak link in its broader regional strategy. The prolonged instability has created an environment conducive to foreign-backed insurgencies, exacerbating border tensions and deterring investment. Failure to secure Manipur not only destabilizes India’s northeastern frontier but also undermines investor confidence and disrupts critical connectivity projects essential for strengthening India-ASEAN relations.
If India aims to counter China’s growing influence in Myanmar and Southeast Asia, decisive action is necessary. Strengthening internal security in Manipur should be a top priority, requiring additional security deployments, enhanced intelligence operations, and stricter border management. Advanced surveillance technologies, coupled with diplomatic engagement with various factions within Myanmar, could help curb cross-border insurgent activities and arms smuggling.
Beyond internal security, India must move beyond its cautious approach and adopt a proactive diplomatic strategy to counter China’s expanding footprint. This involves deepening economic and infrastructure cooperation with Myanmar and ASEAN nations. Strategic projects such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway should be expedited to reinforce India’s presence in the region.
Equally critical is integrating Manipur into India’s Act East framework. Investments in infrastructure, trade hubs, and connectivity projects could transform Manipur into India’s primary gateway to Southeast Asia. A stable and economically developed Manipur would not only enhance India’s regional connectivity but also serve as a bulwark against foreign-backed insurgencies and illicit cross-border activities.
India’s current wait-and-watch policy on Myanmar is no longer viable. The deepening security and economic nexus between China and Myanmar presents a direct challenge to India’s Act East ambitions. Failure to act decisively risks allowing Beijing to cement its influence, further marginalizing India in the region. To reclaim its strategic space in Myanmar and the broader ASEAN sphere, India must abandon its ambiguous stance and assert its influence through robust security, diplomatic, and economic measures.
India’s Act East Policy stands at a critical juncture. The Myanmar crisis and China’s expanding influence necessitate a fundamental reassessment of India’s approach. A comprehensive strategy prioritizing internal security, strengthening border management, enhancing economic engagement, and fostering deeper regional partnerships is imperative. Without decisive action, India risks losing strategic ground to China, diminishing its role in shaping Southeast Asia’s future.
