El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that happens over the Pacific Ocean roughly every two to seven years and can push up global temperatures. The warmth across the Pacific now extends well beyond the tropical region normally used to monitor El Niño. Comparisons with previous major events in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 show much more widespread ocean warmth across the Pacific and into the Gulf of Mexico. Part of this reflects the long-term warming of the oceans but scientists say it is not the whole story.
“The strength of El Niño this year is spilling out of the traditional El Niño region. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there is currently no evidence that climate change is making EI Nino events stronger or more frequent, external. However, it remains an active area of scientific research. What is clearer is that El Niño releases additional heat from the oceans into the atmosphere. Historically, global temperatures during El Niño years are typically higher than during neutral years. Combined with human-driven climate change, that extra heat is expected to help make 2026 one of the warmest years on record, with unusually high global temperatures likely to continue into 2027.
India is heading into winter with a worrying combination: a monsoon that delivered nearly 13 per cent less rain than normal and an El Niño that could become one of the strongest on record by December. With the southwest monsoon now over, attention is shifting to the months ahead. Will India experience a warmer-than-usual winter? Could the rainfall deficit affect water supplies and rabi crops? And could the strengthening El Niño increase the risk of extreme heat during the summer of 2027? The concern is not just about temperatures or rainfall. It extends to agriculture, water availability, electricity demand and public health, as the country prepares for the possible effects of an exceptionally strong El Niño. The larger weather story is unfolding thousands of kilometres away, over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There, an intensifying El Niño is expected to influence global temperatures and rainfall patterns for months to come.
To understand why a patch of unusually warm water in the Pacific can matter to a farmer in India or a power grid operator in Delhi, it helps to start with the ocean–atmosphere system that normally keeps tropical weather patterns in motion. Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface water westwards across the tropical Pacific towards Indonesia and Australia, while cooler, nutrient-rich water rises near South America. This temperature contrast drives the Walker circulation, a system of rising and sinking air that influences tropical rainfall
El Niño develops when trade winds weaken and warm water spreads eastwards, shifting atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns worldwide. It is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that also includes cooler La Niña conditions and neutral phases. ENSO typically recurs every two to seven years. “Super El Niño” is an informal term for an exceptionally strong event, not an official category.
“This super El Nino is already increasing global temperatures, on top of a high base line global average due to Green House Gas (GHG) driven global heating. And its projected to get even stronger till November 2026. So both this winter and the next summer are very likely to be exceptionally warm (with certain belts in the opposite impact zone).”In its October 8, 2026 outlook, the World Meteorological Organization forecast a Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of approximately +3.7°C during October–December, potentially exceeding the 2015–16 peak of +2.6°C. NOAA projected an 83 per cent or greater chance of strong-to-very-strong conditions persisting through January–March 2027. These are forecasts, not confirmed outcomes. Even an exceptionally strong El Niño does not guarantee a failed Indian monsoon or a specific level of damage.
With El Niño expected to intensify towards the end of the year, one of the immediate questions is how it could influence India’s winter weather. For northern India, winter temperatures and rainfall are also influenced by western disturbances, which bring rain to the plains and snowfall to the Himalayas. Their frequency and intensity will play an important role in determining how the season unfolds. What makes the coming months particularly important is that India is entering winter after a rainfall-deficit monsoon. The effects of that shortfall could continue to be felt through water availability, soil moisture and agricultural activity. The immediate concern, therefore, is not simply whether winter will be warmer or colder than usual, but how the developing El Niño could interact with other weather systems and influence conditions through early 2027.El Niño was expected to peak around late November or early December, potentially affecting winter rainfall and snowfall in the cryosphere regions. “A snow drought is also possible, as the falling snow melts into rains and flows away, instead of accumulating layer by layer — as future water storage for summer. All these will impact agriculture, drinking water availability and even industrial activities that depend on these Himalayan rivers.
India’s monsoon has left behind a worrying shortfall. The country received 759.4 mm of rainfall between June 1 and September 30, 2026, against the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm, a deficit of 12.6 per cent, or roughly 13 per cent, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The department said this was the fourth-lowest southwest monsoon rainfall total since 2001.The first consequences may be felt in places where rainfall deficits have already strained water supplies. A weak monsoon can mean less replenishment for reservoirs, rivers, ponds and groundwater, although local conditions vary considerably. What matters now is not just the national rainfall total, but where rain fell, how much water was captured and whether it remains available when farmers and households need it. The implications extend to the rabi season, when wheat, mustard, chickpeas and other winter crops are grown. In rain-fed areas, soil moisture and winter precipitation can be especially important. Where irrigation supplies are limited, farmers may face difficult decisions about sowing, crop choice and water use. Warmer conditions can also increase crop-water requirements.
Extreme heat also poses a challenge for India’s power system. Rising temperatures drive up demand for air conditioning and other cooling needs, while weaker winds and reduced rainfall can affect wind and hydropower generation. The pressure could extend to coal-fired power plants themselves, which require large volumes of water for cooling. In its central scenario, meeting this shortfall through additional coal-fired generation could release an estimated 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. And simultaneously, drinking water shortages will put extra pressure on these water sources, mostly rivers. “Water scarcity could therefore compound the challenge of meeting peak electricity demand.
Additionally, a super El Niño could weigh on India’s economic growth by disrupting monsoon rainfall, hurting agricultural output and squeezing rural incomes, the key concern was the impact on rural demand, “which continues to be a key driver of India’s consumption-led growth “and sectors with high rural exposure, including FMCG, automobiles, agro-inputs and consumer durables, “could therefore witness slower growth in rainfall-deficient regions over the coming quarters”.
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