The Report Card: Is PR to Continue

The tone and approach of Manipur Governor AK Bhalla and Chief Secretary Prakash Kumar Singh make it evident that the President’s Rule (PR) in the state is committed to ensuring the rule of law. The administration appears to be employing peaceful means first, but it is unlikely to be lenient toward those who defy peace initiatives. A stricter approach seems imminent, with authorities prepared to take decisive action against non-compliance.
As things stand, the continuation of PR for at least six months appears almost certain. The fate of the state legislative assembly remains uncertain, depending on the situation at the end of this period. If conditions do not improve significantly, the Centre may even consider dissolving the assembly and synchronizing the state elections with those of Bihar, Assam, or any other state where the BJP holds a stronger electoral advantage. Any premature attempt to reinstate an elected government in Manipur could prove to be an exercise in futility.
With no personal biases, the public perception is that PR has been effective in maintaining law and order. Under the Governor’s administration, there have been no major untoward incidents, and even the buffer zones have remained peaceful following the resignation of Biren Singh. The situation has gradually improved since PR was imposed, with significant reductions in extortion cases and a noticeable absence of armed youth in both valley and hill districts. Except for isolated, stage-managed protests, there is minimal public outcry against the central regime, suggesting that the people were disillusioned with the previous government. The demand for the complete disarmament of illegal weapons remains strong across all communities. If a free and fair poll were conducted today on whether to continue PR or reinstate an elected government, PR would likely emerge as the preferred choice.
Whenever the state government is reinstated, the BJP is unlikely to reward any leader with a history of rebellion. The party has consistently adhered to this principle in the past and is expected to maintain its stance in Manipur.
Regarding Manipur’s territorial integrity, PR or any future government will ensure that it remains intact. However, crucial issues such as border fencing, the Free Movement Regime (FMR), and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) have taken a backseat to reconciliation efforts between warring communities. The Centre seems to be strategically re-evaluating its approach to border security and movement regulations rather than implementing sweeping changes immediately.
Among the northeastern states bordering Myanmar—Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur—only Arunachal Pradesh fully supports constructing a permanent fence along the porous border. Both Nagaland and Mizoram have passed assembly resolutions urging the Centre to reconsider fencing the Indo-Myanmar border and scrapping the FMR. Similarly, in Manipur, the Nagas and Kukis oppose these measures, while the people in the valley generally support them.
The Centre has taken a calculated approach to neutralize opposition to border fencing and the scrapping of the FMR. In response to Mizoram’s appeal to regulate cross-border movement, the Centre has introduced a system allowing people within 10 km of the border to use 43 designated crossing points with border passes issued by Assam Rifles personnel. Although Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced the scrapping of the FMR in February 2024, no official notification from the Ministry of External Affairs has been issued. This delay raises questions about how the move aligns with India’s Act East Policy.
Former Chief Minister N. Biren Singh’s assertions about border fencing and the scrapping of the FMR remain unfulfilled. His push for implementing the NRC in Manipur has also failed to materialize, as the Centre has made it clear that it will be implemented only in Assam. His shifting narratives—blaming narco-terrorism, external aggression, and illegal immigration for the crisis—failed to gain traction with the Centre, especially after Amit Shah recently characterized the Manipur violence as an ethnic conflict rather than an issue linked to terrorism or religion. Consequently, Biren Singh finds himself politically sidelined, with little hope of making a comeback. His political future now hinges on the Supreme Court’s verdict.
Over time, the public perception of various civil society organizations (CSOs) and youth volunteers involved in self-protection efforts has suffered due to their perceived association with the former Chief Minister. The controversial incidents surrounding the last Lok Sabha elections in Manipur have further fueled suspicions and have seemingly backfired, leading to a loss of crucial support from valley womenfolk—whose influence remains significant but silent for reasons best known to them.
As Manipur moves forward under PR, the Centre appears determined to restore stability and peace before considering the reinstatement of an elected government. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the current administration’s approach succeeds in fostering lasting peace or whether deeper structural changes will be necessary to address the state’s underlying issues.