Manipur under President’s Rule: A long wait for peace amid geopolitical crossroads

Since the imposition of President’s Rule in Manipur on February 13, 2025, the situation in the state remains deeply unsettling. Far from the promise of restoration of normalcy, the northeastern state continues to reel under uncertainty, violence, and a collapse of public trust in both the state and central leadership. The Centre’s approach to the crisis has been widely criticised as tepid, delayed, and at times, indifferent—raising serious concerns about its sincerity in resolving what has become one of the gravest internal conflicts in recent Indian history.
The seeds of the current ethnic strife were sown in early 2023 with escalating tensions between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities, rooted in illegal immigration from across the porous Indo-Myanmar border. What began as a simmering dispute soon exploded into violent confrontations by May 2023. Thousands were displaced, hundreds killed, homes and places of worship burned, and the social fabric of Manipur was violently torn. For months, law and order crumbled, with security forces accused of being either inactive or complicit. Internet shutdowns, curfews, and ambiguous statements from the state government only deepened the distrust among communities. By early 2024, the failure of governance had become so apparent that civil society, student bodies, and even retired military officers called for central intervention. However, the Centre’s response remained largely symbolic—limited to deploying central forces and sending high-level delegations that yielded no concrete outcomes.
It wasn’t until early 2025, nearly two years into the unrest, that the Union Government imposed President’s Rule following the collapse of the state machinery. The delay itself exposed a lack of urgency and seriousness. One must ask: was this extended tolerance of the status quo a failure of intelligence, or a deliberate political gamble? While Article 356 was invoked ostensibly to “restore order,” ground realities suggest little progress. Camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) are still overcrowded and under-resourced. Return of displaced families to their original homes remains a distant hope. Armed groups—both insurgent and ethnic militias—continue to operate with impunity in certain regions, reflecting the Centre’s failure to assert its writ even under direct rule.
More worryingly, the political discourse in New Delhi has rarely prioritised Manipur, except during ceremonial statements or during visits that are tightly choreographed. Parliament has seen little debate on the crisis. Committees have been set up and forgotten. The Home Ministry’s silence is telling; so is the absence of a comprehensive rehabilitation and reconciliation framework. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s delayed comments and the Home Minister’s sporadic visits have done little to inspire confidence. A prolonged silence in the face of mass violence in a border state cannot be interpreted as anything but negligence.
What makes the central government’s inaction more alarming is the geopolitical importance of Manipur. Located in the sensitive Indo-Myanmar border region, Manipur is part of India’s Act East Policy and is strategically crucial in countering Chinese influence in Southeast Asia. India’s Look East policy envisions connectivity, trade, and strategic presence through this region. Yet, the prolonged conflict in Manipur directly undermines this vision. The disruptions to the Trans-Asian Highway, instability along the Moreh border town, and the influx of refugees from conflict-hit Myanmar have only heightened strategic vulnerabilities. In essence, an unstable Manipur weakens India’s frontier at a time when China is rapidly expanding its influence in Myanmar and deepening ties with military juntas and insurgent groups operating close to Indian territory.
Furthermore, a divided and volatile Manipur is susceptible to transnational insurgent operations. Intelligence inputs have already pointed to links between certain insurgent outfits and foreign handlers. A breakdown of law and order in the region gives rise not only to humanitarian concerns but also to serious security implications for India’s northeast.
If New Delhi is serious about resolving the Manipur crisis, it must urgently adopt a multi-pronged strategy. This includes initiating a sustained peace dialogue involving all stakeholders, creating an independent reconciliation commission, fast-tracking rehabilitation and resettlement of displaced persons, and cracking down on armed groups that continue to exploit the chaos. Moreover, the Centre must act with empathy and transparency, acknowledging the depth of ethnic divisions while promoting inclusive governance. Peace in Manipur cannot be restored through coercion or indifference; it demands political will, administrative competence, and an unwavering commitment to justice.
The people of Manipur have waited long enough. Each day of delay erodes not only the state’s social fabric but also India’s credibility in safeguarding its own citizens and securing its frontiers.