India’s diplomatic dilemma: Engaging Myanmar’s Rebel Groups

India’s relationship with Myanmar has been shaped by pragmatic diplomacy, guided by a commitment to maintaining stability along its northeastern borders. Since the military junta seized power in Myanmar through a coup in 2021, India has adhered to a policy of non-interference, cooperating with the junta on security matters while carefully navigating the region’s complex dynamics. However, the recent invitation extended by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) to representatives from Myanmar’s ethnic rebel groups—including those from Chin, Rakhine, and Kachin states—for a seminar in mid-November suggests a potential shift in India’s stance. This has sparked speculation over whether New Delhi is rethinking its approach to Myanmar, especially as its northeastern state of Manipur is reeling under a prolonged ethnic crisis exacerbated by cross-border militancy.
For decades, India has maintained a neutral stance on Myanmar, ensuring peace along their shared border while fostering cooperation with the ruling regime. Myanmar holds strategic importance for India, serving as a gateway to Southeast Asia and playing a crucial role in the country’s Act East policy. India’s economic investments in Myanmar, including ventures like Adani’s participation in military-run enterprises, underscore the depth of bilateral ties. At the same time, India has relied on Myanmar’s military cooperation to combat insurgencies in its northeastern states, including Manipur.
The decision to invite Myanmar’s ethnic rebel groups to the seminar represents a departure from India’s traditional policy of neutrality. These rebel groups, viewed by Myanmar’s junta as terrorists threatening national sovereignty, have been fighting for autonomy and self-determination for decades. By engaging with these factions, India risks being perceived as taking sides in Myanmar’s internal conflict, a move that could strain its relationship with the junta. Such a shift in perception could jeopardize the security cooperation India relies on to manage its volatile northeastern border. For a state like Manipur, which has already seen cross-border insurgent activities spill over from Myanmar, this could have serious implications.
Moreover, engaging with Myanmar’s ethnic rebel groups could undermine India’s broader economic and strategic interests in the region. Over the years, India has carefully balanced its relationship with Myanmar, ensuring that it does not alienate the regime in power while pursuing its connectivity goals in Southeast Asia. It would be wrong policy to assume that establishing good relation with Arakan Army will revived the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, as it is too early to assume that Military Junta may defeat. Complicating matters further is Myanmar’s growing reliance on China for economic and military support. Should India’s engagement with rebel groups be viewed negatively by the junta, Myanmar could drift even closer to China, reducing India’s strategic leverage in the region.
Amidst these diplomatic considerations, the ongoing crisis in Manipur looms large. The northeastern state has been embroiled in violent ethnic conflict, with tensions between the Kuki and Meitei communities intensifying. This internal strife has been further complicated by the infiltration of around 900 trained militants from Myanmar’s Chin State. These militants, many of whom have ties to insurgent groups in Myanmar, have escalated the violence in Manipur, worsening the already fragile security situation. The porous Indo-Myanmar border has long facilitated the movement of militants and arms, and the spillover from Myanmar’s internal conflicts has contributed to Manipur’s deepening instability.
In this context, India’s involvement with Myanmar’s rebel groups presents a delicate balancing act. For the crisis in Manipur, a solution must address both domestic and international dimensions. Domestically, India needs to prioritize dialogue between the Kuki and Meitei communities to reduce tensions and restore peace. Border security must also be reinforced to prevent further infiltration of militants from Myanmar. Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent announcements, which include plans for border fencing and talks with local communities, are promising steps. However, more comprehensive measures are needed to tackle the root causes of the conflict—such as economic marginalization, ethnic grievances, and political representation—if long-term peace is to be achieved.
At the international level, India’s engagement with Myanmar’s internal conflicts should aim to stabilize the region and curb the flow of militants and arms into northeastern India. Strengthening border management and enhancing security cooperation with Myanmar are essential to preventing further escalation of violence in Manipur. By striking a careful balance between its diplomatic, security, and economic interests, India can navigate the complexities of its relationship with Myanmar while addressing the urgent need for peace in Manipur.