Lesson for Rest of the World from Russia-Ukraine Conflict

By: Kaustov Kashyap
One of my friends asked ‘if the Russian invasion of Ukraine does not lead to World War 3, will this result in some country’s opportunity for annexing or invading other countries? For example, can China annex Taiwan? Will China attack India because Russia is on its side? Is it an opportunity for India to get back POK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir)? Is this Russia-Ukraine conflict having any message for the rest of the World? I will try to answer those questions.
Yes, China can easily invade Taiwan and annex it in a couple of day’s military operation. However, China has to estimate its probable economic loss because of various sanctions to be imposed upon it. But then China is a super-power militarily and thus no World power will intervene in that matter militarily.
Regarding China attacking India or India attacking Pakistan to take back POK, we must understand the present-day warfare. No full-scale war can happen between two countries or two military alliances if both have the capacity to retaliate. If China attacks India, then India has the retaliatory capability and it can hit hard deep inside China. So, China won’t dare a full-scale military attack although border skirmish will always be there.
Similarly, Pakistan although militarily can’t match India, yet has the capacity to retaliate. Most of Western and Northern India can be attacked by Pakistan military retaliation. In the long run, Pakistan may lose the battle against India but it can inflict irreparable loss and fatality to India. Thus, India shouldn’t go for retaking POK unless it is compelled by any Pakistani act that amounts to danger for India’s national security. The border skirmishes, limited war or even surgical type of proactive operations can be done post any terror attacks, but both countries will avoid a full-scale war.
It’s not only applicable for Indo-China or Indo-Pak situations. This is applicable to every country in the World. Let me give a couple of examples. Iran is not attacked by America or its allies just because Iran has the capacity to retaliate. It can go on bombing Saudi Arabia and its allies with large-scale destruction. Israel is surrounded by enemy countries yet it’s safe because of its retaliatory capacity. America and NATO couldn’t confront Russia militarily just because of its retaliatory activities. Forget about all other countries, even America couldn’t dare to attack, North Korea because North Korea’s retaliation would have a destructive effect on Japan and South Korea. The bottom line is that countries having a retaliatory capacity won’t be bullied by more powerful countries militarily. Yes, there could be economical sanctions that could weaken a country despite having a retaliatory capacity.
The above brings some lessons for the rest of the World, especially in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Firstly, sovereignty and freedom is the fundamental right of every nation. Also, all should be desirably peace-loving. But then if you don’t have enough retaliatory power, then try to cohabit in a friendly atmosphere along with your neighbours. Never ever be a pawn of another powerful country. Ukraine and Georgia are the best examples. Just build your retaliatory military power without threatening your powerful neighbour.
Secondly, no country is going to help you militarily when you are at war with another country. Despite all solidarity of the west and America, Ukraine is being decimated at the moment. So be prepared if you have a rough neighbouring country because, in case of war, it’s your country alone that will fight alone. For example, if China attacks India, then it’s India that will counter the attack alone. Neither America nor NATO nor even a long-standing ally like Russia won’t fight your war. This example applies to the Whole World.
Thirdly, militarily inferior countries despite their economic condition must learn to exhibit ‘neutrality’. Just following superpowers sycophantically, may bring danger in the future.
Further, super-powers may compete economically but should avoid military conflicts directly or indirectly. In the Ukraine crisis, it’s US and NATO who indulged in an indirect military conflict with Russia and Ukraine foolishly fell into the trap.
Finally, I would say that War is devastating. But a World War in the present scenario would result in a crisis of human survival.
(The writer is a HR & Career Consultant, Jail Road, Jorhat , Assam)