By – Amar Yumnam
Imphal, June 2:
Every phenomenon is never an autonomous happening – occurring on its own without having a cause behind instigating it is out of the question. Manipur is historically a high rainfall kingdom; while rainfall has been there, but floods have not been happening every now and then while high rainfall is a historical reality. There has to be a cause behind the rainfall to activate flood. The unprecedented, in the senses of speed, region and scale as in the present case, floods cannot be an autonomous happening in any sense.
The present floods in Imphal reminds me of what I had encountered while trying to understand phenomenon; Professor John Lee of McGill University defines it thus on writing about Deflagrations and Detonations: “Upon ignition, a combustion wave propagates away from the ignition source. Combustion waves transform reactants into products, releasing the potential energy stored in the chemical bonds of the reactant molecules, which is then converted into internal (thermal) and kinetic energy of the combustion products. Large changes in the thermodynamic and gasdynamic states occur across the combustion wave as a result of the energy released. The gradient fields across the wave generate physical and chemical processes that result in the self-sustained propagation of the combustion wave.”
While explaining the phenomenon by McGill, we must remember that he does have a context of the phenomenon in his mind. The ongoing floods in Imphal is something exactly like this. There definitely have been ‘igniting’ factors too. While talking about floods and, for that matter, on any issue of Manipur, people always talk without knowing about the diversified properties of the land and the demography. These diversities do have again variations in the geographic and institutional qualitative characteristics. The year 2022 was celebrated as the International Year of the Mountains. More than this, a new branch of Economics generally known as New Economic Geography has been very active for nearly two decades now. The administrators have found it more convenient to appreciate the political economic (let me put it simply as policy) to try to implement without appreciating these differentials. Walking in a plain and walking on a slope are two different things. But the Indian administrators are too busy to analyse and understand the implications for administration and policy evolution of these. Manipur happens to be a small kingdom with diverse geographic components – the mountains surrounding the valley in the middle. The detonation like floods have not been the experience because the surrounding mountains were rich in forests and the high rainfalls are marked by slow flowing down thanks to the rich forestation in the mountains.
Further, let me emphasise that the emergence of another new branch of Economics – Institutional Economics – has made the intelligent administrators around the globe to be conscious of the contextual traditions where any policy is being envisaged for implementation. Let me talk of the Property Rights Regimes in Manipur in particular. The regimes for the Nagas and the Meeteis had reached a stage of stability quite long back.
Thus, the relationship between administration and people is stabilised and policy conflicts can be identified easier in the case of the two. But in the case of the Khongjais (I prefer this term to the Kukis) the Property Rights Regime is still unstable and there are still strong justice implications. They must have started feeling the imperative for establishing a stable property rights regime during the last few years.
The implications of all these have been put aside while attempting to understand and evolve policies by the administrators of India in Manipur. There are Intra- and inter-relationship issues to be settled for stability. But there has never been attempts by the Indian administration to understand and evolve policy interventions having coherence and relevance. The Meeteis and the Nagas have not had crises because of historical and evolutionary dynamics, but that of the Khongjais needs a different approach for appreciation. It is this lack of understanding which has been a very convenient atmosphere for maximum exploitation for personal profits. The recent massive degradation of forests and conversion of these into areas for poppy cultivation can never be explained without bringing a kind of interrelationship between the administrators and the new population groups.
The ongoing floods and the immediate flowing down of the rains in the mountains to the valley can only be explained by these dynamics of profit relationships.
While trying to appreciate the causality of floods, we must keep in mind that Look East Policy started with a bang and ended with a whimper. But exactly just across the border China has been implementing with utmost vigour the Greater Mekong Region development policy covering Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Yunnan in China. The development transformations which have taken place in this region during the last decade is just fantastic. This naturally has had demographic implications for Manipur. I feel sorry that India is matching the Mekong Region transformation with inter-ethnic killings and rich poppy cultivation in Manipur.
Let me end with just one question addressed to the Indian administration: Whether flood or any development problem in Manipur demands an understanding of the contextual realities of Manipur? Is India ready without any pretensions to go for this understanding?