By – Ranjan Yumnam
Imphal, Sept 8 :
The past few days have rocked Manipur. The Manipur conflict has morphed into a theatre of international warfare. While we were trying to come to grips with the rebels’ audacity of using drones for bombings on civilian targets, they have now pulled out yet another high-tech weapon from their arsenal. The instance of a missile attack that killed a man in Moirang is a clear sign the players are in for a dirty fight by using any means. The conflict has reached a dangerous phase of no return. From machete fights, arsons and bullets, it has reached a grand finale of non conventional sparring. More surprises may jolt us in the near future if the trend of escalation is not arrested.
Common sense dictates that the parties in this conflict will leave no stone unturned in inflicting maximum damage to the rivals in the absence of serious mediation. Anticipating this scenario is not to inflame hysteria or create a needless panic; all precautions must now be taken to avoid any large-scale casualties. This conflict has not only dragged on but has risen many notches up to an alarming level. After the use of drones to drop bombs and long range missiles, the possibility of a biological and chemical warfare is not an impossibility anymore and repercussions will be dire should it happen. In that case, it may even ignite a major humanitarian crisis as has unfolded in the Gaza-Israel region where the world can do little to stop the carnage of war, despite the world leaders paying lip service. The Gaza experience has shown that it is futile to place faith in the international conscience, especially when the needle of suspicion is increasingly being pointed at the foreign powers driven by their geopolitical interests.
The present conflict has all the markings of war crimes. The principles of just war philosophy and various international covenants are violated one after another as civilians and non-combatants are being targeted without discrimination. In a full-fledged war, residential buildings, and civic institutions like hospitals, schools, and non-governmental spaces are conventionally left out of the crosshairs. There seems to be no such relaxation in this no-holds-barred confrontation in Manipur.
Another aspect of wrongdoing is from the angle of proportionality. Drone bombings and missile attacks are capable of mass destruction, and the sheer firepower from these weapons is disproportionate to the political demands that are meant to be decided at the local political level or within the deliberative system of the nation-state. The use of excessive force must be justified and clinical to avoid harm to innocent people. The reality is that ordinary people going about their normal lives in their homes are getting slayed in their sleep, hit by explosives in their verandahs or shot by snipers while they were collecting firewood.
The third objection pertains to the legitimacy of the warring groups. Only the formally recognised states can deploy military-grade weapons. On this count, the aggressors clearly lack the authority to deploy the dangerous weapons, as mentioned above. Armed to the teeth, the rebels are becoming a law unto themselves like the Somalian sea pirates operating beyond any legal system.
But the most important aspect of conducting a war concerns its justification. According to the well-accepted theory of just ad bellum (justice of war), the intention of war must draw its legitimacy from moral grounds like self-defense and protection of human rights and the war’s objective should never be for territorial gains, retaliation, or mass killings. The intention of war should be sacrosanct and honourable.
Since the groups in the conflict have trampled upon the above principles, it is reasonable to fear the possibility of the unthinkable. They may become bold or reckless enough to use biological and chemical weapons to establish dominance, especially in moments of desperation abetted by shadow players. If it happens, this will also violate the key principle of ‘No Means Malum in Se’ (No Evil Means) and could lead to untold catastrophe. Abominable and extreme tactics of attack have defiled the ethics of war, and it will only take one bad decision by a group to bring hell.
Any just war must be waged after weighing the chances of achieving success and only if the greater cause outweighs the fallout of war. This war doesn’t guarantee anything, but it is played out as an aggressive posturing for a political demand at best. It’s worthwhile to remember that war will not bring a permanent solution. The inverse thinking will be much more pragmatic, which is that war is not the solution, but differences in ideologies lead to war. At the root of any conflict are the unresolved differences at the level of ideas. All war originates from the mind. To win a war, hearts and minds need to be won first. That is why dialogue is so important. Any sudden and radical moves from any actor will put all the stakeholders on edge, paving the way for the conflict to go rogue in unexpected directions. In military parlance, there is a concept called fog of war in which the combatants get sucked into rabbit holes of retaliations and knee-jerk reactions, which further complicates the tension. In the Art of War, Sun Tzu said, “To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” Know yourself and your enemy. This dictum is not lost on the present fighters.
Therefore, complacency will be costly. We need to gear up and raise our guards to preempt chemical and biological warfare and be prepared for its aftermath. Since deadly drones and missiles are being used with impunity, no one can assure that weapons of mass destruction will not be used. At least, the possibility should not be ruled out. This is not a wild panic mongering, but a precaution that calls for serious consideration. Taking proactive countermeasures rather than indulging in reactive post hoc condemnations and blame-game are the need of the hour. The question is: Who will bell the cat in this fractured game?
