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More MLAs or not BJP will form government in Manipur

by Rinku Khumukcham
0 comment 3 minutes read

For sure no political party will get absolute majority in the 11th Manipur Legislative Assembly election. Yet either of the Congress or the BJP will be getting single majority, and depending upon the numbers these two party win in this election the Governor Manipur will invite them to form the government. This invitation is possible only if one of these parties cross 30 MLAs in number or else the governor of Manipur has to wait for claims from any of the party.
As per exit poll conducted by various agencies both BJP and congress numbers of MLAs BJP is expected to win is 25 to 31 (CVtor exit Poll), As per exit Poll result conducted by the India Today –Axis the number of Congress seat may be in between 30-36.
As per analysis of the mainland agency it is either the BJP or the congress that will form the government.
But as per the grass root survey conducted by the Imphal Times and team, it is definitely the congress that will be simple majority, but the number to claim stake for forming election may not reach. Maximum seat expected for congress is 26 to 28.
BJP on the other hand may be the second largest political party in the 11th Manipur Legislative Assembly, total seat expected is not more than 20. However, with other smaller parties which are expected to get seats in the state assembly may support them if not merge for coalition government, as supporting is also a kind of advantage. There is also a possibility that BJP may form a coalition government in the 11th Manipur Legislative Assembly. The only problem with this political party is the lack of a figure which will be unanimously accepted as the legislature wing leader. And right now it’s too early to declare the name as result is yet to be announced.
So congress party has double advantage and for sure it is likely that the Okram Ibobi Singh government will return for another term. But the question is how long ?
Even as Okram Ibobi is considered as omnipotent leader of Congress party, it is worth reminding that there are still crisis inside the congress party, as every elector believe that, each of them too should have the opportunity of becoming chief minister.
Post election scenario will be a different picture from that of the strategy of pre election campaign. If not those elected are not power hunger, that is a different story. But precisely every elected represented leaders are power hunger people. Anything can happen.
Former Chief Minister of Manipur Radhabinod Koijam had once said that everything is possible in politics.
Manipur being more like a beggar state definitely need a close tie with the ruling party at the center and this is the main reason that Imphal Times Question for how long? If in case Okram Ibobi returns to power for the fourth terms.
Anti defection law is a powerful instrument, but it lacks certain provisions to rule out delaying tactics. So if the number of BJP candidate is even lower than expected and the number of congress goes up as stated by Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, the fate of congress party may be in danger.
This write up suggest that, even though congress party returns to power and Okram Ibobi becomes chief Minister for the fourth term, the government will only work for one or two months. There will be definitely a BJP led coalition government in the state, but still except for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, nobody can predict who will be the Chief Minister is a BJP led government is formed.

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Imphal Times is a daily English newspaper published in Imphal and is registered with Registrar of the Newspapers for India with Regd. No MANENG/2013/51092


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