Meitei numbers will play decisive role in Outer Manipur election

In the electoral landscape of Outer Manipur, a region comprising 28 assembly constituencies, the political influence of the Meitei demographic is prominently observed in eight key constituencies. These constituencies—Heirok, Wangjing Tentha, Khangabok, Wabgai, Kakching, Hiyanglam, Sugnu, and Jiribam. Among the over 10 lakh voters constituting Outer Manipur, a substantial portion, totaling 2.5 lakhs, hails from these Meitei-dominated areas.
Despite the Meitei populace’s significant electoral presence, Outer Manipur remains designated as a reserved seat for Scheduled Tribes (ST), thereby barring Meitei constituents from contesting as candidates themselves. This unique political scenario underscores the paradoxical dynamic wherein a substantial voter base possesses the right to vote but lacks the eligibility to contest elections within their own constituency.
The Outer Manipur election has historically been characterized by the influence of money and muscle power, owing to the presence of various armed groups such as Naga underground (UG) and Kuki militant factions. However, the current political landscape has witnessed a notable shift, with the emergence of armed Meitei groups adding a new dimension to the electoral dynamics.
In the upcoming election, fifteen Assembly seats in Outer Manipur, including traditionally Kuki-dominated areas like Churachandpur and Kangpokpi, and Meitei dominated constituency such as Kakching, and Wabgai, are scheduled to go to polls on April 19. Concurrently, voters in the remaining Assembly seats, including Naga-dominated constituencies like Ukhrul, Tengnoupal, Tamenglong, and Tipaimukh, will cast their votes on April 26. So, the first phase of election will cover the areas in the Outer Manipur where violence is ongoing.
The decision to conduct the election over two days, as acknowledged by Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, indicates a strategic approach to managing the electoral process. While the specific reason for this scheduling was not explicitly stated, it may be inferred that the staggered voting dates could serve multiple purposes: Given the volatile nature of the region, particularly with the presence of armed groups, spreading out the election dates allows for enhanced security arrangements to be implemented, thereby mitigating the risk of violence or disruptions during the electoral process.
There will be pervasive effects of ongoing violence on the voters from the Outer Manipur region given that all these eight assembly constituencies where Meiteis are the majority have been in turmoil since May 3 last year, particularly evident in Sugnu. Moreover, the situation is compounded by the displacement of a considerable number of Meitei individuals from regions such as Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, and Moreh, many of whom now find themselves in relief camps. Despite their circumstances, these displaced individuals are poised to exercise their voting rights from the confines of relief camps during the Outer Manipur election.
In light of these circumstances, the sentiment among those impacted by the violence perpetrated by Kuki-Zo militant groups is likely to coalesce against candidates representing the Kuki community. Their grievances and the desire for accountability may galvanize Meitei voters to unite in their electoral choices, viewing the ballot as a means to voice their dissent against perceived perpetrators of violence and injustice. But, we need to see what will happen. Nothing is certain when it comes to election in Manipur.