Sudden changes in the administration of the neighbouring Myanmar, after the Military seized power by declaring state of emergency for a year, on February 1, by detaining NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi and his team should be a serious concern for India for two reasons – 1) the security concerns and 2) the economic relationships.
The better the relationship between Myanmar, the more India can resist any attempt to sabotage or foil any attempt from the Chinese aggression. It is a fact that Chinese government indirectly supports the Military regime as the economic giant of the South and Far East Asia have already established strong relationship with the Myanmar counterpart during the Military Junta even after it renamed its government as State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and the subsequent formation of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). Chinese authority’s moral support to the Military regime is an open secret and nations across the world know it and India should perhaps be one country that should have more intelligence input in connection with the Chinese influence to Myanmar. This is being assumed as India’s progress or development depends on the cordial relationships with neighbouring countries. Already India’s souring relationship with Pakistan- another neighbouring country in India’s northern block, as well as with that of Bangladesh is not that satisfactory. Nepal’s position and its foreign policy is slowly shifting towards China. It is at this juncture that India needs a special strategy to make sure that the fertile relationship between India and Myanmar continues. The question is whether the Military coup in the neighbouring country will impact the relationship or not. This is presumed as India is a strong supporter of Democracy and played vital role to the restoration of Democracy in 2016. India’s support to the pro-democracy after the 8888 uprising in Burma is known to Myanmar Military authority and whether India’s same stand to the cause for restoration of democracy in Myanmar continues that whether it will affect the relationship between the countries needs to be pondered upon.
Another factor is that, India has all set for penetrating its market to the South East Asia by implementing the Act East Asia. Already there have been questions from some scholars when India withdrew from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). RCEP, as everyone knows, is the instrument of China for growth of economy in the South and Far East Asia. India as of now is no member of the RCEP. Even though India managed to promote better relationship with Myanmar without being a member of RCEP, change of Military regime in Myanmar perhaps may be a hurdle. Because India’s main counterpart is China and China’s control over the Army regime may be a stumbling blockage to the initiative of the India government.
If this happens, the dream of Manipur to be benefitted from the ‘Act East Policy’ may be a shattered dream.
