Some opines the threat by the Naga Peoples’ Front (NPF) as a setback for the BJP lead coalition government, but the fact is that the arithmetic in the political conundrum is always depended to the number game. Four (4) plus (4) is always eight (8) and there is no logic that the withdrawal of the NPF from the government will give any impact to the N. Biren Singh government. The must talk about the possibility of Nationalist Peoples’ Party (NPF) will also make no difference as N. Biren Singh now have required number of MLAs even if both the NPP and the NPF withdraw support to the government.
If one calculate the total strength of the present N. Biren Singh led government is 40, even though they got only 21 seats in the assembly election. 4 MLAs each from NPF and the NPP raise the number to Twenty eight (28) excluding the Speaker. Three (3) other number – one from the Tinamool Congress , another from the Lok Janashakti Party and the independent MLA from Jiribam Assembly constituency plus a Congress MLA who joined the BJP makes the number to 32. Now 8 more Congress MLAs are with the BJP. Neither the Congress party tried to challenge their defection from the party seriously nor the Speaker of the State Assembly take the defection with extreme seriousness. So the total number of MLAs in the govt. is 40. If NPF and NPP withdraw their support the N. Biren Singh Government will still have 32 MLAs.
However, the drama in the political theatre, particularly in the state of Manipur may change if there is a change in guard in the centre after the declaration of the result of the 17th Lok Sabha Election.
When the arithmetic on the survival of the government is well formulated, the threat for withdrawal of the NPF definitely has reason to worry for N. Biren Singh government.
Well it is open secret that NPF is the brain child of the NSCN-IM and the outfit which is hoping for a solution with the Government of India is utilizing the party as their puppet for political purpose.
Yesterday declaration by the NPF on whether to remain with the government or not will be decided on May 18 speaks volumes about the motives of the political party.
Source already told that there will be a major reshuffled in the N. Biren Singh Government after the declaration of the 17th Lok Sabha Election. There is possibility that the lone Minister of the NPF who hold portfolio of PHED, Loshii Dikho may be dropped to be replace by the BJP MLA as there is a disturbing wind blowing inside the BJP over not getting Ministerial berths. This is being speculated as the NPF did not say that they have taken resolution to withdraw support in the meeting of the highest decision making body of the party but said that the decision will be declared on May 18. It is more likely that the NPF gives times for the government to rethink if the government has any plan to drop the NPF Minister.
Another thing that needs to be worried is – the NSCN-IM factor. If the decision to withdraw is related to the peace negotiation going on between the outfit and the government of India then the government is in serious crisis. The whole effort that has been taken up by the N. Biren Singh government to bridge the Hill and Plain people will be sabotaged. After all it is an open secret that the cease fire between the government of India and the NSCN-IM is unofficially extended to the state of Manipur and the NSCN-IM has a long hand in interfering to any problem of the state if they desire.