Political turmoil: A no-confidence motion in the offing?

With speculations swirling in Manipur’s political circles about a possible no-confidence motion against Chief Minister N. Biren Singh by the Opposition Congress, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is reportedly making all necessary preparations to counter any such move. According to sources, an urgent meeting was convened this morning at the Chief Minister’s Secretariat, where key BJP ministers, National People’s Party (NPP) leaders, and Naga People’s Front (NPF) members were in attendance. While the exact strategy of the BJP remains undisclosed, all eyes are now set on February 10, the day the 7th session of the 12th Manipur Legislative Assembly is scheduled to begin.
The political situation in Manipur has become increasingly volatile, especially with the Speaker’s Tribunal expediting the hearings on disqualification cases of five Janata Dal (United) MLAs and NPP MLAs. The fate of these 11 legislators now lies in the hands of Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata Singh. However, the alleged growing rift between the Speaker and the Chief Minister has added another layer of intrigue to the unfolding political drama. The decision to reserve the judgment on these cases has only fueled further speculation about the behind-the-scenes political maneuvering.
Adding to the complexities of the situation is the open defiance of seven BJP MLAs who have been vocally critical of the Chief Minister. Despite their apparent opposition, the BJP still enjoys a numerical advantage, even if these seven MLAs and three others—including two from the Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA)—choose to align themselves against Biren Singh’s leadership (They may abstain from the 7 session of the state assembly as usual). The Congress, which remains the principal opposition party, currently has only five MLAs in the Assembly. As per the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Manipur Legislative Assembly, a no-confidence motion can only be admitted if it has the support of at least 10 members. Given the fractured nature of the opposition, it remains uncertain whether Congress can muster the required numbers to push through the motion.
The biggest question remains: If the no-confidence motion is indeed tabled, who will support it? Unlike in other states where opposition parties form coalitions to challenge the ruling government, Manipur’s opposition MLAs have yet to forge any such alliance. Without the backing of five additional MLAs, the motion will be outrightly rejected by the Speaker. For the BJP, retaining power is still within reach, even if the seven dissenting MLAs from Churachandpur, Tengnoupal, and Kangpokpi districts remain critical of the Chief Minister.
Despite internal discord, the BJP legislators will likely remain united under the party whip, as mandated by the anti-defection law enshrined in the Tenth Schedule of the Indian Constitution. This provision prevents MLAs from defying the party’s decision without facing disqualification. Furthermore, the Speaker’s hold over the fate of the defected JDU and NPP MLAs means that any unexpected shifts in political allegiances could significantly alter the balance of power.
While the opposition Congress has substantial grounds to challenge the government, given the state’s prolonged crisis over the past 21 months, the feasibility of successfully moving a no-confidence motion remains doubtful. For now, the ruling BJP, despite internal strife, still holds a numerical advantage. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the political storm will escalate into a full-blown crisis or whether Chief Minister N. Biren Singh will continue to retain his grip on power.
Manipur’s political landscape is, therefore, on the brink of yet another major showdown. As February 10 approaches, the state awaits the unfolding of what could be a defining moment in its governance. Regardless of the outcome, the situation underscores the fragile and unpredictable nature of Manipur’s political dynamics, where allegiances can shift rapidly, and power struggles can take unexpected turns.