Domino Effect of Ethnic Crisis

Beginning in May 2023, the outbreak of violence between the Meitei’s and the Kukis in India’s North-eastern state of Manipur has once again brought the decades-long ethnic conflicts to the limelight. As peace in Manipur seems like a distant dream, there are competing narratives around the genesis of the current eruption. Most media report point to the 3 May incident in the Kuki-majority district of Churachandpur, while others say it was the Meitei groups’ act of blocking the roads in the Imphal East District. Absent a consensus about the beginnings of this current episode, today the reality is that the Kukis have been forced to flee the Meitei-dominated areas, and the Meitei’s have also moved out from the Kuki-dominated areas; there is little chance that the situation will be reversed soon.
Following the end of colonial rule, the erstwhile princely state of Manipur merged with the Union of India in October 1949. It was made a Union Territory in 1956, and a full-fledged state in 1972. The state of Manipur comprises three ethnic groups—i.e., the Meitei’s, the Nagas, and the Kukis. The Meitei’s constitute the majority, inhabiting mainly the Imphal valley and surrounding areas; the Scheduled Tribes, Nagas and Kukis, live in the hilly regions. Since the 1960s, various militant groups have emerged in Manipur, claiming to represent the various demands and grievances of their respective ethnic communities; the Kukis and the Nagas, in particular, have been fighting for their separate homeland—a struggle that naturally conflicts with the aim of the Meitei’s to defend the state’s territorial integrity. Its long border with Myanmar—which is ungoverned territory—and the fraternal and other ties between the militant groups across the border, compounds the security threat on Manipur.
The Hill-Valley divide in Manipur—seen in issues such as the demand of the Meitei’s for ST status and the opposition to it—is deeply rooted. Among the multiple factors that have historically wedged this divide is asymmetric development and political representation. Economic development and political power has been valley-centric, leaving the Kukis and the Nagas bereft of the benefits. The issues of asymmetric political representation and development are worsened by a persisting governance deficit. As mentioned briefly earlier, insurgency movements belonging to each of the ethnic communities have established governance mechanisms parallel to the formal governance structures in Manipur. In the absence of a perceived or real governance, the informal governance structures play important roles. Arguably, the governance deficit can be directly attributed to the faulty and ineffective decentralisation of power in Manipur, where the populations in the hill districts are often unable to obtain justice for their grievances.
Issues emanating from certain neighbouring countries of India also contribute to the ethnic conflicts in Manipur. These include the dumping of goods from China; the illegal migration (both real and the perceived) of the Chins from Myanmar; and increasing cultivation of poppies and consequently the rising drug trade in Manipur. While the dumping of goods from China is often seen through the prism of state security, the illegal immigration from Myanmar, and the rise of poppy cultivation and the drug trade are often linked to the Kukis of Manipur. The majority of Meitei’s (and to some extent the Nagas, too) are of the view that the illegal migration of the Chins from Myanmar, following the takeover of the junta in 2021, threatens the ‘demographic balance’ of Manipur. Moreover, the Meitei’s believe that with the illegal immigration of Chins from Myanmar, there has been a spike in poppy cultivation in and around the Kuki majority areas, leading to the rise of the drug trade in the state. Since May 3, the northeaster Indian state of Manipur has witnessed repeated inter-ethnic clashes primarily between two local ethnic communities, the Meitei and Kuki. The violence has resulted in over 200 deaths and the burning of at least 5000 buildings (including homes and religious sites). More than60,000 people are currently displaced as well, with many now living in one of the many relief camps in the state. As the fighting continues, these numbers may also be rising.
How does the violence impact the lives of the people?
Health: Women and children have been severely affected. According to government estimates, as of July 24, 2023, “319 pregnant women, including 19 in the high-risk category, have received crucial antenatal care in strife-torn Manipur, while 139 pregnant women have given birth to babies since the onset of the current crisis. “However, what’s not being mentioned is the impact of the violence and subsequent trauma on the health of the women and new mothers, many of whom have lost their homes and loved ones and been subjected to physical and sexual assaults. “Women face various health challenges, including loss of the ability to generate milk to breastfeed, lack of hygiene and privacy, hot flushes among older women, and insomnia. There is bound to be a long term effect on people’s mental health.  They will remember the scarcity of food and unhygienic conditions around them. Students are missing school and college classes. There are very few toilets in these camps. There’s hardly any medical help available. All of those in these camps will require medical and psychological help. The trauma of upended lives will last long.” Suicide in the relief camp is also reported due to the mental health crisis.
Livelihoods: Since the riots began, there have been multiple attacks on people’s livelihoods including burning down of agricultural lands and killing of livestock. The ongoing conflict has severely affected agricultural practices in the state, preventing them from not only initiating cultivation but also having to face the direct impact of the conflict in terms of infrastructural damage to the irrigation and storage facilities. However, with instances of violence still being reported in parts of the state, farmers are now undertaking cultivation fraught with anxiety.”
Education: Like livelihoods, education too has come to a standstill for most students in Manipur. These are students who had just returned to school after the learning gap forced on them by the pandemic. The schools will now have to accommodate the students’ mental and financial struggles when they return. However, approximately 4,700 students have been displaced due to the violence, both internally and outside the state. As the violence continues, the students living in the hills can no longer return to the universities in the valley. They fear falling behind in their studies as the universities have resumed regular classes.
Economy: The prolonged conflict has also affected social and economic aspects of daily life. Prices of essential commodities such as food, fuel and medicine have fluctuated and increased due to supply chain disruptions and prevailing uncertainty. Many individuals have left the region, while others have lost their livelihoods and assets. And the impact goes beyond money: longstanding friendships and social bonds have dissipated in many areas, complicating everyday activities like farming or fishing on the fringes of valleys and hills. The ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur, now in its 14th month, has taken a heavy toll on its economy with goods and services tax (GST) collections during the April-October period contracting 19 per cent at a time the country’s overall GST mop-up rose in double digits. The 19 per cent reduction in GST collections is only the tip of the iceberg because there is a huge informal economy in Manipur which has been severely impacted. Many micro industries not captured in GST data are on the verge of closure and many would have closed down already. People are procuring even day-to-day necessities from outside the state through family and friends because items have become very expensive in Imphal,” an official of a trade body residing in north-east India said, requesting anonymity.  The retail inflation in Manipur remained one of the highest in the country at 10per cent as per Economy Survey 2024 report.Free flow of traffic along the two national highways connecting Dimapur with Imphal (NH2) and Manipur with Assam (NH37) have been badly affected which causes sky high of the price of essential commodities, giving undue burden to common people. The incident of extortion and monetary demands in various sectors by unknown groups is also the order of the day as reported in local media outlets.
Lastly, in an ethnically fragile state such as Manipur, policymaking should rise above the electoral interests of incumbent regimes. Policies around short-term electoral interests have had negative implications on the nation-building endeavour. There is an urgent need for meaningful dialogue among the conflicting communities that could precede confidence-building measures among the ethnic groups. In turn, the only way that such confidence-building measure could be initiated is to bring an end to the violence. The political will of the state government would be key.
(Writer can be reached at:[email protected])