By: Herojit Nongmaithem
A devastating earthquake of 7.8 magnitude struck Turkey/Syria border areas on February 6, around 4:15 a.m. local time. With a series of aftershocks largest of which were M7.5 and M6.7 have already caused death over more than 5000 peoples and thousands more injured as on Tuesday, the 7th February, 2023. Such mega earthquakes are common in the world causing huge disasters in terms of fatalities and infrastructural buildings and other properties as well. The region along Turkey-Syria border is tectonically governed by the East Anatolian fault system and has a history of twelve earthquakes of ÃM6.0 during the last two decades. What provokes the scientists rather the seismologists are the prophecies based on the planetary geometry as a probable case of precise prediction that has gained a mammoth populace amongst the general public.
The planetary geometry model of predicting earthquake became an instant hit when Frank Hoogerbeets, a Dutch researcher from the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), predicted the devastating earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria three days ahead in his twitter account. The tweet that have more than 34 million views and said, “Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon)”. The tweet that apparently proved to be correct was posted on February 3, was followed by more than 1.87 lakh followers. However, many of the seismic intellects have counter reacted to this model.
The basic idea of this planetary prediction is that the alignment of planets and other celestial bodies can have a gravitational pull on the Earth that can trigger seismic activity. Mr. Hoogerbeets also elaborates these earthquakes are always preceded by critical planetary geometry, as on 4-5 Feb. However, this idea is not supported by scientific evidences and has been discredited by the vast majority of seismologists and geologists. The prediction of earthquakes is a complex process that involves a thorough understanding of the Earth’s geology, plate tectonics, and seismic activity. There is no evidence that planetary alignment has any significant impact on the likelihood of earthquakes. In at least one case reported in the mainstream media, Hoogerbeets made a similarly audacious prediction of a massive 8+ magnitude earthquake that was seemingly imminent in late December of 2018. To its contrary there were no records of an earthquake anywhere on the earth except a M7 earthquake that hit Philippines on 29th Dec, 2018. With enough predictions, even if most do not pan out, given that dozens of tremors occur around the globe every day, it is not impossible that one forecast hits the bulls eye.
Lunar tides within the Earth are bigger and so more likely to be the immediate trigger of an earthquake, but won’t be the cause of earthquake. This statement is the key for the present moment since the science behind earthquake prediction is still an active area of research and the current methods used by seismologists involve analyzing patterns of seismic activity and studying the Earth’s crust to identify potential areas of increased risk.
Keeping such views in mind and considering the possibility of a mega earthquake (±M8) in the Bangladesh – North East India region being postulated by many workers, its high time we focused ourselves in aseismic designs in all the construction and infrastructural set ups to minimise causalities.
(The author is a Senior Geologist, GSI, Imphal Office)
