Public Policy Disaster: Is Manipur Experiencing It Now?

By: Amar Yumnam
Public policy disasters are not new experiences for the world. During the 1990s Europe experienced this amongst others consequent upon the Monetary Crisis of 1992 and the Civil War in Yugoslavia ultimately leading to the emergence of two different countries. A little earlier, the United States of America’s “experiences of the Vietnam war and the gap between the rhetoric and reality of the Kennedy/Johnson years were a serious shock to the optimism of postwar social reformers. Studies such as Derthick’s (1972) NewTowns in Town and Pressman and Wildavsky’s (1973) famous account of the Oakland urban regeneration project cast doubt on the capacity of even well funded and well-supported state intervention to contribute to the creation of any ‘Great Society’.” These experiences turned the post-war optimism of the people into pessimism about the governments.
I understand that comparing the global experience on Optimism and Pessimism about governments may not be strictly comparable with the case of Manipur. I am making the reference nevertheless to emphasise that every government at any level must endeavour to create a kind of optimism. The creation of this optimism is the cornerstone of the Acceptability and Success of a Public Policy framed by a government.
Manipur has recently experienced a period of Optimism following the attainment of Statehood. Immediately after attaining Statehood, Manipur got the Medical College (now named Regional Institute of Medical Sciences), a Centre for Post-Graduate Studies to ultimately become a full-fledged University, the Board of Secondary Education, etc. This spirit of Optimism somehow sustained until recently. The Ibobi regime also could sustain the optimism spirit despite the widespread allegations of corruption. There have been highs and lows, but the spirit of optimism has not left the people.
But the present experience in Manipur is one of Pessimism with the fear that Optimism might not return too soon. The behavioural manifestations of the government recently are such that the confidence and trust of the people now do not lie with the government. The stage of Pessimism has reached a peak and it can get only worsened. This relates to the latest handling of the decision to lift Prohibition from the State of Manipur.
Manipur now thus faces a public policy disaster. With one stroke the government has been successful in soliciting greatest criticism, disappointment and controversy among the people. The attempt to respond by putting out a so-called Draft Liquor Policy has only added fuel to the fire; the pessimism is only getting widened and deepened.
In an earlier piece in this daily, I had emphasised that a policy should reflect maturity and cannot be founded on ignorance and lies. Any public policy has to be evolved in a context of (a) the capability and credibility of the government; (b) a society – diverse or otherwise – with a history, culture and institutions of its own; (c) the human agencies involved; and (d) the level of information on the relevant area for the public policy. In the case of lifting the Prohibition, the government did not have any idea of this context, it does not have it now and, even worse, there is no intention of working towards understanding of this. We know for sure that the period of prohibition coincides with the Rise of Greatest Optimism relating to emergence of our youths, both boys and girls, as Biggest Competitors in the Arena of Sports at the International Level; this is no joke given the size of the population and the limitations of facilities available locally. The driving force for the emergence of this capability has been non-material spirits and inducements. As I wrote in an earlier piece: Since the Prohibition was achieved “after a long social struggle of two decades and a struggle consequent upon social and familial crises during the 1960s and early 1970s, it is important that any decision on this should necessarily be a prudent one.” At first the government behaved as fully prudent with complete knowledge for the lifting of prohibition and even claimed that it consulted the Experts too on the need for ending prohibition. But days gone by with no clarifying information and not even the information the claimed consultation with the Experts should have provided; within days it should have put out at least the following information: (I) targeted resource items for production of liquor varieties; (II) the annual production targets over time; (III) the annual valuation implications for both domestic consumption and exports to outside the State; and (IV) the potential technological collaborations identified. None of these happened.
It is in this background that the government came out with the so-called 2-page Draft paper. It has been the most painful thing. The presentation of this draft after all these criticism, disappointment and controversy only serves to heighten the Spirit of Pessimism. The action or rather inaction reflected in this paper is that the government does not know itself. In the light of recent behavioural manifestations of the government, it almost looks like a “chronic dilemma” characterising the present government.
Public policy making must be conducted in one atmosphere or the other in so far as information is concerned. Economists call it Bounded Rationality and Unbounded Rationality. If we have a complete information on all the relevant aspects of the area where a policy is being planned, there is no limitation on the potentiality for establishing a rationale for the envisaged-Policy. This is the context of Unbounded Rationality. But, in the real world, it is not that all the time we have complete information on every aspect of any area for which a policy is being envisaged. We may have the limitation of only a few relevant information on only some aspects of the area of which a policy is being planned. This is called a context of Bounded Rationality. It is not however that policies cannot be evolved in a world of Bounded Rationality where behaviour “is not wholly explicable in terms of satisfaction of complete and consistent preferences” (Alistair Munro, 2009, Bounded Rationality and Public Policy: A Perspective from Behavioural Economics).It is only that the processes of public policy formation are different according to the context of Rationality.
What has happened with the decision to lift prohibition is that the Government was definitely working in a context of Highly Bounded Rationality. While this was the reality, the Government announced in the public domain and continued behaving that it was functioning as if with Unbounded Rationality. All these establish beyond doubt that (i) the Government does not have the capability to appreciate the context of decision-taking; and (ii) it has no knowledge of the policy making processes according to context. This is how an atmosphere of Public Policy Disaster has been created by the government by its own actions, and the Spirit of Pessimism has been put on full speed.