The ongoing crisis in Manipur has not only deepened the state’s ethnic and political divide but also created conditions for a dangerous resurgence of insurgent groups. Among these are factions that had previously been declared defunct or significantly weakened, now finding an opportunity to re-emerge amid the chaos. This alarming development raises serious questions about the long-term consequences of the government’s approach to handling both insurgency and internal strife in the region.
Manipur’s struggles with insurgency are not new. The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), imposed in 1980 as part of a counter-insurgency strategy, was expected to curtail the activities of armed groups. Ironically, insurgency flourished under the shadow of this draconian law. By the time the Act was partially lifted from seven assembly constituencies in 2004, insurgent groups had multiplied rather than diminished. The recent violence and unrest in Manipur have undone much of the progress claimed by the state, reviving groups once believed to be extinct and giving rise to new threats.
The ethnic clashes that have engulfed Manipur have proven to be fertile ground for insurgent activity. In the absence of effective governance and law enforcement, old factions are regrouping, recruiting new members, and taking advantage of the ethnic polarization to regain their influence. What was once a fractured and declining insurgency now appears to be consolidating power amid the turmoil, driven by grievances that have been exacerbated by the crisis.
This resurgence exposes the fragility of the government’s approach to insurgency in the northeast, which has historically relied on militarized solutions. AFSPA, with its sweeping powers granted to the armed forces, was initially implemented to suppress rebellion. However, it has long been criticized for fostering alienation among the local population and deepening mistrust between the people and the state. The recent crisis has further highlighted the limitations of such a strategy, as the grievances that fueled insurgency in the past have been reignited, rather than resolved.
The Union Home Minister’s recent statement envisioning an end to insurgency in the region by 2026 reflects a bold aspiration, but the ground realities in Manipur suggest a more complex and troubling trajectory. The violence has not only undermined progress but also redefined the insurgency landscape, with revived groups now exploiting the volatile environment. Instead of witnessing the decline of militancy, Manipur is seeing a return to conditions that are eerily reminiscent of the state’s darkest periods of unrest.
The root causes of this resurgence lie in the state’s inability to address longstanding grievances. For decades, Manipur has faced issues of underdevelopment, unemployment, and ethnic tensions, which have fueled discontent and provided insurgents with a steady stream of recruits. The ongoing crisis has amplified these grievances, creating a sense of insecurity and hopelessness that insurgent groups are quick to exploit. The state’s failure to provide effective governance during this time has further eroded public confidence, leaving communities vulnerable to manipulation by militant factions.
The revival of insurgencies also reflects the dangerous interplay between ethnic divisions and militancy. The current crisis has drawn sharp lines between communities, with insurgent groups aligning themselves along ethnic lines to capitalize on the unrest. This development not only threatens the fragile social fabric of Manipur but also complicates efforts to restore peace, as insurgencies now carry the additional weight of ethnic identity and grievance.
The government’s partial lifting of AFSPA from some regions of Manipur in 2022 was seen as a move toward normalization. However, the events of recent months have underscored the fragility of that progress. The resurgence of insurgent groups amid the crisis demonstrates that military interventions alone cannot bring lasting peace. A comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of conflict—economic marginalization, political exclusion, and ethnic strife—is essential to ensure that the state does not relapse into prolonged instability.
As the government seeks to fulfill its vision of ending insurgency by 2026, it must confront the reality that the ongoing crisis has set the clock back significantly. The focus cannot solely be on neutralizing militant groups; it must also include addressing the socio-political dynamics that have allowed insurgency to thrive. Without a concerted effort to rebuild trust, foster reconciliation, and create opportunities for the youth, the resurgence of insurgency will continue to haunt Manipur.
Manipur’s crisis is not just a local issue but a national challenge that calls for urgent attention and a shift in strategy. The revival of insurgent groups during this period of unrest serves as a stark reminder of the costs of neglect and the need for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to peacebuilding in the region. The stakes are high, and the government must act decisively to prevent the state from descending further into violence and instability.