The recent notification issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs, declaring that the next Census of India will be conducted in 2027, may seem like a routine bureaucratic update to many. However, for Manipur — a state that lies on the sensitive frontier with Myanmar and carries the weight of ethnic diversity, political instability, and cross-border demographic pressures — the implications are far from ordinary.
For decades, the Indigenous people of Manipur, including the Meiteis, Nagas, Kukis, and various smaller tribes, have raised concerns about the steady influx of illegal immigrants, particularly from Myanmar and Bangladesh. This demographic challenge has now taken on a new urgency in the backdrop of political unrest in neighbouring regions and internal conflict in the state. The porous international border and ineffective tracking mechanisms have contributed to a situation where the local population fears being outnumbered or sidelined in their own homeland.
With the government preparing for the Census 2027, the absence of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) from the process has sparked widespread concern. While a census is meant to count all residents, not necessarily citizens, the inclusion of undocumented migrants in these numbers could further distort the demographic profile of the state. Without NRC, the census risks giving de facto legitimacy to individuals who may not hold Indian citizenship, thereby complicating matters of political representation, welfare eligibility, land ownership, and employment opportunities.
The fear among Indigenous communities is not unfounded. Already, there have been reports and observations of unnatural spikes in population in certain pockets of the state, suspected to be a result of unchecked settlements by illegal immigrants. These demographic shifts are altering the delicate balance among communities, intensifying social tensions, and fuelling the ongoing conflict. With NRC missing from the upcoming census framework, the door is now open for deeper, more lasting complications.
The Inner Line Permit (ILP) system, implemented in Manipur in 2019, was a welcome step in protecting the interests of native populations by regulating the entry of outsiders. However, ILP only controls movement — it does not identify or remove those who have already settled illegally. As such, ILP cannot be a substitute for NRC, especially when the state faces sustained demographic pressure from across international borders.
The Indigenous people of Manipur are demanding not just a headcount but protection. They need safeguards — legal, constitutional, and administrative — to ensure their continued survival and cultural preservation. The decision to proceed with Census 2027 without NRC ignores this reality and places the Indigenous population at further risk of marginalisation.
The state government, political leaders, civil society organisations, and community-based groups must come together to make a collective appeal to the Centre. It is essential that NRC be implemented in Manipur before or alongside the census. Without this, the exercise becomes incomplete and even dangerous in its potential to normalise illegal settlements through official records. Transparency, community oversight, and the right to challenge inclusions in the census must be built into the process.
The Indigenous people of Manipur have guarded their identities for centuries through tradition, struggle, and resilience. Today, however, the challenge they face is numerical. In a democracy driven by numbers, identity is as much a matter of demographic strength as it is of history or culture. If these numbers are allowed to be manipulated — whether intentionally or through administrative oversight — the consequences could be irreversible.
Census 2027, if conducted without NRC in Manipur, will not merely count the people. It could also miscount the future of the Indigenous communities. It may render them invisible in their own land, statistically outnumbered and politically sidelined. The Centre must recognise this danger and take corrective steps before it is too late. Manipur must not be a silent observer in its own erasure.