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By-election and the ‘Framework agreement’


The bye-election scheduled to hold on November 21 at both Thangmeiband and Thongju Assembly constituency is perhaps one of the most important election which has the tendency to change the political theatre of this state. The verdict of the people in this election will be the reflection of the people of the state towards handing over the fate of the state to either BJP which is in power in the center or to the congress which is ruling the state for three consecutive terms. But the verdict which have the tendency to decide on which political party will come to power in the state, is also likely to be another factor that will decide the destiny of the ‘frame work’ agreement inked between the Government of India and the collective leadership of the NSCN-IM. This may be assumed as over estimation, but there are strong circumstances that make us believe that, the result of both the Thongju and Thangmeiband Assembly election will have impact to the ongoing framework agreement.
It is a fact that, the BJP is trying all its effort to establish a strong BJP in the state and every possible attempt is being made to make the party as peoples’ choice. After the last parliamentary constituency election at which the BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi has swept overwhelm victory, the party has been targeting to build a strong base as it appeared as an insult to the party by not succeeding in sending a single representative in not even a single sit in both the parliamentary constituencies and the Assembly constituencies. But with the party leading the government in the center, the Manipur BJP unit act like a strong opposition since then.
They have learnt somehow, the party’s inability to win the heart of the people after the defeat of the Hiyanglam Assembly bye-election. Well that was when the BJP led government at the center hadn’t move ahead anything to the ongoing peace talk with the NSCN-IM.
It is not just saying, but a truth, that almost all mainstream political parties work to spread their arms far and wide. Regional problem are little consider as long as they have good numbers of their party men. The agenda of every political party is also to get maximum number of elected representatives. And if the said political party fails at one of the constituency it is a logic that the same party will try other alternatives to occupy at some other constituency.

At present BJP is not having any representative at any of the assembly constituency of the state. If they failed to find place in Valley area of the state, it is certain that the party may change its strategy towards the Hills.
This is the juncture that is needed to be discussed in depth. It is a common understanding that the NSCN-IM has the potential to influence the voters of some of the assembly constituencies based at Hill districts of the state. It is also an open secret that once a powerful armed group stands at the back of a political party it makes the political party easier to penetrate to the voters’ community here at some of the North East states of India particularly the state of Manipur. 
What is concern here is that if the second alternative has been put as a priority for the BJP then there is every possibility the government at the center which is being lead by the BJP may do any move to please the NSCN-IM.
This paper had reported about the 3 state formula charted out by the NSCN-IM by curving out portion of Manipur’s territory and Arunachal Pradesh Territory. May be if none of the BJP candidate contesting the election had succeeded to win a seat, the BJP will chose the option.
This is assumed so because BJP’s agenda is to have more MLAs or MPs of their party across the nation, no matter if it had to retell the history of an erstwhile nation now an Indian state. 

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